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Predicting phenology by integrating ecology, evolution and climate science

Global change biology, 2011-12, Vol.17 (12), p.3633-3643 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd ;2015 INIST-CNRS ;ISSN: 1354-1013 ;EISSN: 1365-2486 ;DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02515.x

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Title:
Predicting phenology by integrating ecology, evolution and climate science
Author: Pau, Stephanie ; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M. ; Cook, Benjamin I. ; Davies, T. Jonathan ; Kraft, Nathan J. B. ; Bolmgren, Kjell ; Betancourt, Julio L. ; Cleland, Elsa E.
Subjects: Animal and plant ecology ; Animal, plant and microbial ecology ; Biologi ; Biological and medical sciences ; Biological Sciences ; Climate change ; Climate science ; environmental filtering ; Evolutionary biology ; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology ; General aspects ; growing-degree day models ; Natural Sciences ; Naturvetenskap ; niche conservatism ; Phenology ; photoperiod ; Plant ecology ; temperature sensitivity ; temporal niche
Is Part Of: Global change biology, 2011-12, Vol.17 (12), p.3633-3643
Description: Forecasting how species and ecosystems will respond to climate change has been a major aim of ecology in recent years. Much of this research has focused on phenology – the timing of life‐history events. Phenology has well‐demonstrated links to climate, from genetic to landscape scales; yet our ability to explain and predict variation in phenology across species, habitats and time remains poor. Here, we outline how merging approaches from ecology, climate science and evolutionary biology can advance research on phenological responses to climate variability. Using insight into seasonal and interannual climate variability combined with niche theory and community phylogenetics, we develop a predictive approach for species’ reponses to changing climate. Our approach predicts that species occupying higher latitudes or the early growing season should be most sensitive to climate and have the most phylogenetically conserved phenologies. We further predict that temperate species will respond to climate change by shifting in time, while tropical species will respond by shifting space, or by evolving. Although we focus here on plant phenology, our approach is broadly applicable to ecological research of plant responses to climate variability.
Publisher: Oxford: Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Language: English
Identifier: ISSN: 1354-1013
EISSN: 1365-2486
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02515.x
Source: Alma/SFX Local Collection

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Predicting phenology by integrating ecology, evolution and climate science

2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd ;2015 INIST-CNRS ;ISSN: 1354-1013 ;EISSN: 1365-2486 ;DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02515.x

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