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Social distancing laws cause only small losses of economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Scandinavia

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, 2020-08, Vol.117 (34), p.20468-20473 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

Copyright National Academy of Sciences Aug 25, 2020 ;2020 ;ISSN: 0027-8424 ;EISSN: 1091-6490 ;DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2010068117 ;PMID: 32747573

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Title:
Social distancing laws cause only small losses of economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Scandinavia
Author: Sheridan, Adam ; Andersen, Asger Lau ; Hansen, Emil Toft ; Johannesen, Niels
Subjects: Betacoronavirus ; Communicable Disease Control - economics ; Communicable Disease Control - legislation & jurisprudence ; Consumer Behavior - economics ; Contraction ; Coronavirus Infections - economics ; Coronaviruses ; COVID-19 ; Denmark ; Disease control ; Economic conditions ; Economics ; Health Policy - legislation & jurisprudence ; Health risks ; Humans ; Pandemics ; Pandemics - economics ; Pneumonia, Viral - economics ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Shutdowns ; Social distancing ; Social Isolation ; Social Sciences ; Sweden ; Viral diseases ; Viruses
Is Part Of: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, 2020-08, Vol.117 (34), p.20468-20473
Description: This paper uses real-time transaction data from a large bank in Scandinavia to estimate the effect of social distancing laws on consumer spending in the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The analysis exploits a natural experiment to disentangle the effects of the virus and the laws aiming to contain it: Denmark and Sweden were similarly exposed to the pandemic but only Denmark imposed significant restrictions on social and economic activities. We estimate that aggregate spending dropped by around 25% (95% CI: 24 to 26%) in Sweden and, as a result of the shutdown, by 4 additional percentage points (95% CI: 3 to 5 percentage points [p.p.]) in Denmark. This suggests that most of the economic contraction is caused by the virus itself and occurs regardless of social distancing laws. The age gradient in the estimates suggests that social distancing reinforces the virus-induced drop in spending for low-health-risk individuals but attenuates it for high-risk individuals by lowering the overall prevalence of the virus in the society.
Publisher: United States: National Academy of Sciences
Language: English
Identifier: ISSN: 0027-8424
EISSN: 1091-6490
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2010068117
PMID: 32747573
Source: Open Access: PubMed Central
GFMER Free Medical Journals
MEDLINE

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Social distancing laws cause only small losses of economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Scandinavia

Copyright National Academy of Sciences Aug 25, 2020 ;2020 ;ISSN: 0027-8424 ;EISSN: 1091-6490 ;DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2010068117 ;PMID: 32747573

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