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Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

Nature climate change, 2018-04, Vol.8 (4), p.325-332 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

Copyright Nature Publishing Group Apr 2018 ;ISSN: 1758-678X ;EISSN: 1758-6798 ;DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3

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Title:
Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C
Author: Rogelj, Joeri ; Popp, Alexander ; Calvin, Katherine V. ; Luderer, Gunnar ; Emmerling, Johannes ; Gernaat, David ; Fujimori, Shinichiro ; Strefler, Jessica ; Hasegawa, Tomoko ; Marangoni, Giacomo ; Krey, Volker ; Kriegler, Elmar ; Riahi, Keywan ; van Vuuren, Detlef P. ; Doelman, Jonathan ; Drouet, Laurent ; Edmonds, Jae ; Fricko, Oliver ; Harmsen, Mathijs ; Havlík, Petr ; Humpenöder, Florian ; Stehfest, Elke ; Tavoni, Massimo
Subjects: Clean energy ; Climate ; Climate models ; Economic models ; Energy consumption ; Environmental policy ; Fossil fuels ; Fossils ; Global temperatures ; Mean temperatures ; Pathways ; Radiative forcing ; Removal ; Socioeconomics ; Temperature ; Temperature rise
Is Part Of: Nature climate change, 2018-04, Vol.8 (4), p.325-332
Description: The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m−2, and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 °C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 °C. Successful 1.9 W m−2 scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale low-carbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W m−2 scenarios could not be achieved in several models under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policy. Further research can help policy-makers to understand the real-world implications of these scenarios.
Publisher: London: Nature Publishing Group
Language: English
Identifier: ISSN: 1758-678X
EISSN: 1758-6798
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3
Source: ProQuest Databases

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Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

Copyright Nature Publishing Group Apr 2018 ;ISSN: 1758-678X ;EISSN: 1758-6798 ;DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3

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