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Analysis and valuation of the health and climate change cobenefits of dietary change

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, 2016-04, Vol.113 (15), p.4146-4151 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

Volumes 1–89 and 106–113, copyright as a collective work only; author(s) retains copyright to individual articles ;ISSN: 0027-8424 ;EISSN: 1091-6490 ;DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1523119113 ;PMID: 27001851

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  • Title:
    Analysis and valuation of the health and climate change cobenefits of dietary change
  • Author: Springmann, Marco ; Godfray, H. Charles J. ; Rayner, Mike ; Scarborough, Peter
  • Subjects: Biological Sciences ; Climate Change ; Developed Countries ; Developing Countries ; Diet ; Emissions control ; GDP ; Global health ; Greenhouse gases ; Gross Domestic Product ; Health Status ; Humans ; Models, Economic ; Risk factors ; Social Sciences
  • Is Part Of: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, 2016-04, Vol.113 (15), p.4146-4151
  • Description: What we eat greatly influences our personal health and the environment we all share. Recent analyses have highlighted the likely dual health and environmental benefits of reducing the fraction of animalsourced foods in our diets. Here, we couple for the first time, to our knowledge, a region-specific global healthmodel based on dietary and weight-related risk factors with emissions accounting and economic valuation modules to quantify the linked health and environmental consequences of dietary changes. We find that the impacts of dietary changes toward less meat and more plant-based diets vary greatly among regions. The largest absolute environmental and health benefits result from diet shifts in developing countries whereas Western high-income and middle-income countries gain most in per capita terms. Transitioning toward more plant-based diets that are in line with standard dietary guidelines could reduce global mortality by 6–10% and food-related greenhouse gas emissions by 29–70% compared with a reference scenario in 2050. We find that the monetized value of the improvements in health would be comparable with, or exceed, the value of the environmental benefits although the exact valuation method used considerably affects the estimated amounts. Overall, we estimate the economic benefits of improving diets to be 1–31 trillion US dollars, which is equivalent to 0.4–13% of global gross domestic product (GDP) in 2050. However, significant changes in the global food system would be necessary for regional diets to match the dietary patterns studied here.
  • Publisher: United States: National Academy of Sciences
  • Language: English
  • Identifier: ISSN: 0027-8424
    EISSN: 1091-6490
    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1523119113
    PMID: 27001851
  • Source: Open Access: PubMed Central
    Geneva Foundation Free Medical Journals at publisher websites
    MEDLINE
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