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Biomass market dynamics supporting the large‐scale deployment of high‐octane fuel production in the United States

Global change biology. Bioenergy, 2018-07, Vol.10 (7), p.460-472

2018 The Authors. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. ;2018. This work is published under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. ;ISSN: 1757-1693 ;EISSN: 1757-1707 ;DOI: 10.1111/gcbb.12509

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  • Title:
    Biomass market dynamics supporting the large‐scale deployment of high‐octane fuel production in the United States
  • Author: Lamers, Patrick ; Nguyen, Ruby T. ; Hartley, Damon S. ; Hansen, Jason K. ; Searcy, Erin M.
  • Subjects: Aromatic hydrocarbons ; bioblendstock ; Biomass ; biorefinery ; commoditization ; Computer simulation ; Co‐Optima ; Energy policy ; Energy research ; Federal agencies ; forest biomass ; Fuel economy ; Fuel production ; Fuels ; high‐octane fuel ; Housing ; Intermediates ; Lignocellulose ; market development ; Markets ; mobilization ; Octane ; Pathways ; Pelleting ; Pulp ; Pulp & paper industry ; Raw materials ; Refining ; system dynamics ; Wood
  • Is Part Of: Global change biology. Bioenergy, 2018-07, Vol.10 (7), p.460-472
  • Description: US Department of Energy research aimed at co‐optimizing fuels and engine performance identified several bioblendstocks that can improve fuel economy including an aromatic‐rich hydrocarbon derived from woody biomass. This work supports an analysis of its large‐scale deployment implying a production target of approximately 15 billion liters of bioblendstock for the supply of 57 billion liters of high‐octane fuel by 2050. It simulates potential transition pathways to lignocellulosic feedstock market structures capable of supplying a mature biorefining industry at this scale. In the present absence of biorefineries, transitions are modeled via nonbiofuel feedstock markets, so‐called companion markets. The resource distribution across several demand industries is simulated to determine biomass availability and price dynamics over time. Results indicate that the wood supply base is mainly influenced by traditional markets including housing and pulp and paper. The selected companion market of wood pellet combustion for heat and electricity generation is found to positively stimulate biomass mobilization, especially in the initial absence of biorefineries. Eventually, biorefineries are found to be able to out‐compete the companion market. As such, they directly benefit from the processing (i.e., pelleting) capacity established to produce commodity‐type intermediates for the companion market. We conclude that the amount of bioblendstock produced is directly related to the size of the companion market (and its pelleting capacity). An initially larger companion market generates up to 20 million dry tonnes of additional feedstock, equivalent to 27 commercial‐scale biorefineries, or an additional production of 5 billion liters by 2050. Distinguishing between industry‐specific feedstock preferences based on average biomass quality characteristics, this analysis goes beyond past research efforts that assume automatic fungibility across different feedstocks. Improving engine performance is a key driver for the promotion of low‐carbon fuels derived from bioblendstocks. This analysis portrays feedstock market transition pathways for their large‐scale deployment. U.S. Department of Energy research aimed at co‐optimizing fuels and engine performance identified several blendstocks that can improve fuel economy including an aromatic rich hydrocarbon that can be derived from woody biomass. This analysis of its potential deployment to about 15 billion liters by 2050 models possible transition pathways to commercial feedstock infrastructures capable of supplying a mature biorefining industry at this scale. We find that an initially larger demand from non‐biofuel (companion) markets can mobilize up to 20 million tonnes of additional biomass by 2050, equivalent to 27 commercial‐scale biorefineries or an additional production of 5 billion liters.
  • Publisher: Oxford: John Wiley & Sons, Inc
  • Language: English
  • Identifier: ISSN: 1757-1693
    EISSN: 1757-1707
    DOI: 10.1111/gcbb.12509
  • Source: Open Access: Wiley Blackwell Open Access Journals
    AUTh Library subscriptions: ProQuest Central
    DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals
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