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World Commodity Forecasts Industrial Raw Materials May 2023

World Commodity Forecasts. Industrial Raw Materials, 2023

2023 The Economist Intelligence Unit Ltd. All rights reserved. Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. No further reproduction is permitted. ;ISSN: 1351-8976 ;EISSN: 2047-9794

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  • Title:
    World Commodity Forecasts Industrial Raw Materials May 2023
  • Subjects: Aluminum ; Central banks ; Commodities ; Commodity prices ; Copper ; Crude oil ; Crude oil prices ; Iron ores ; Liquefied natural gas ; Metals ; Natural gas ; Palladium ; Petroleum ; Pricing ; Raw materials ; Rubber ; Volatility
  • Is Part Of: World Commodity Forecasts. Industrial Raw Materials, 2023
  • Description: Average copper and aluminium prices will decline as economic activity slows We expect average prices of aluminium, which has the highest weighting in the metals index, to fall by nearly 10% in 2023 as the market rebalances itself after two consecutive years of growth-prices surged by 9.3% in 2022. The market will fall into deficit by mid-2023, putting upward pressure on prices We forecast that the global oil market will fall back into deficit by mid-2023-around the same time as most major central banks end monetary tightening. EIU commodity price index (1990=100) 2022 2023 2024 2025 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr 3 Qtr 4 Qtr 1 Qtr 2 Qtr US$ index WCF 278.4 236.3 233.2 241.7 233.5 228.4 226.7 225.9 224.7 225.2 227.5 227.3 226.7 IRM 240.9 197.9 192.6 204.0 209.7 204.8 204.1 206.7 206.2 210.9 217.1 221.1 220.8 Base metals 270.6 217.0 218.4 236.2 243.1 235.1 233.3 237.1 237.2 246.5 255.6 262.4 262.6 Fibres 174.8 150.5 133.1 131.5 135.9 135.9 132.5 132.5 132.5 125.9 125.9 125.9 124.3 Rubber 224.6 205.3 186.2 188.8 189.7 192.9 211.9 213.5 205.6 211.9 215.0 210.8 210.8 Crude oil 475.5 418.5 372.7 343.5 365.1 374.6 366.7 337.9 359.2 368.5 351.6 324.1 328.3 % change, year on year WCF 27.1 4.7 -3.3 -10.5 -16.1 -3.3 -2.8 -6.6 -3.7 -1.4 0.3 0.6 0.9 IRM 15.4 -8.2 -15.7 -18.4 -13.0 3.5 6.0 1.3 -1.7 3.0 6.3 7.0 7.1 Base metals 11.5 -13.2 -16.9 -18.5 -10.2 8.3 6.8 0.4 -2.4 4.8 9.6 10.7 10.7 Fibres 38.0 13.0 -10.1 -17.7 -22.3 -9.7 -0.4 0.8 -2.4 -7.3 -5.0 -5.0 -6.2 Rubber 5.2 -5.7 -17.8 -18.4 -15.5 -6.0 13.8 13.1 8.3 9.8 1.5 -1.2 2.6 Crude oil 64.3 35.9 11.0 -17.7 -23.2 -10.5 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -4.1 -4.1 -8.6 Note. Individual commodity prices 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Rubber (US$/tonne) 1,756.7 1,864.1 1,766.3 2,217.5 2,162.4 1,998.9 2,158.8 2,152.0 2,100.0 2,049.3 Cotton (US cents/lb) 91.4 77.9 71.9 101.2 129.9 101.7 95.3 99.8 99.0 98.2 Wool (Aus cents/kg) 1,244.4 1,232.0 1,195.0 1,191.4 1,195.0 1,195.0 1,195.0 1,195.0 1,195.0 1,195.0 Aluminium (US$/tonne) 2,111.0 1,791.2 1,701.5 2,476.4 2,707.6 2,443.4 2,463.0 2,600.0 2,650.0 2,701.0 Copper (US cents/lb) 296.1 272.3 279.8 422.7 399.7 409.0 436.5 436.5 438.8 441.0 Lead (US cents/lb) 101.8 90.6 82.7 100.0 97.6 97.2 95.2 90.7 89.6 88.4 Nickel (US$/lb) 6.0 6.3 6.2 8.4 11.7 11.4 11.3 10.4 10.0 9.5 Tin (US$/lb) 9.1 8.5 7.8 14.8 14.2 11.0 12.4 12.4 12.2 11.9 Zinc (US cents/lb) 132.7 115.6 102.6 136.3 158.1 141.3 125.2 117.9 113.4 109.0 Iron Ore ($/ dry metric tonne unit) 69.8 93.8 108.9 161.7 121.3 100.8 89.5 85.0 80.0 75.3 Steel (US$/tonne) 657.1 501.5 486.5 842.5 680.0 645.0 668.8 660.0 645.0 630.3 Gold (US$/troy oz) 1,269.2 1,392.5 1,770.3 1,799.6 1,800.6 1,935.8 1,977.5 1,880.0 1,850.0 1,820.5 Palladium (US$/troy oz, London) 1,034.4 1,542.4 2,204.6 2,417.3 2,135.4 1,525.4 1,425.0 1,990.0 1,985.0 1,980.0 Platinum (US$/troy oz) 879.5 864.0 883.4 1,091.1 961.7 1,078.6 1,100.0 1,150.0 1,200.0 1,252.2 Silver (US cents/troy oz) 1,571.4 1,621.8 2,053.7 2,516.5 2,179.4 2,125.4 2,000.0 1,970.0 1,950.0 1,930.2 DAP ($/tonne) 393.4 306.4 300.8 601.0 772.2 684.1 675.0 660.0 650.0 640.2 Phosphate Rock ($/tonne) 87.9 88.0 76.1 123.2 266.2 219.4 128.8 108.0 103.0 98.2 Oil: Brent (US$/b) 71.1 64.0 42.3 70.4 99.8 85.9 84.0 79.0 73.1 66.4 Oil: OPEC reference price (US$/b) 69.5 64.1 41.4 69.7 99.9 85.3 82.8 78.0 72.1 65.5 Oil: WTI (US$/b) 64.8 57.0 39.3 68.0 94.4 81.1 80.0 75.8 70.1 63.7 Natural gas (US$/mmBtu, Europe) 7.7 4.8 3.2 16.1 40.3 17.2 13.3 8.0 7.5 7.0 Natural gas (US$/mmBtu, US) 3.2 2.6 2.0 3.9 6.4 3.0 3.5 3.8 3.7 3.7 Liquefied natural gas (US$/mmBtu, Japan) 10.7 10.6 8.3 10.8 18.4 17.9 14.3 12.5 11.5 10.6 Coal (US$/tonne, Australia) 107.0 77.9 60.8 138.1 344.9 201.9 155.0 80.0 78.0 76.1 Source: EIU.
  • Publisher: New York: The Economist Intelligence Unit N.A., Incorporated
  • Language: English
  • Identifier: ISSN: 1351-8976
    EISSN: 2047-9794
  • Source: ProQuest Central
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