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Model output statistics O.sub.3 forecasts: trade-offs between continuous and categorical skill scores

Atmospheric chemistry and physics, 2022-09, Vol.22 (17), p.11603 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

COPYRIGHT 2022 Copernicus GmbH ;ISSN: 1680-7316 ;EISSN: 1680-7324

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  • Title:
    Model output statistics O.sub.3 forecasts: trade-offs between continuous and categorical skill scores
  • Author: Petetin, Hervé ; Bowdalo, Dene ; Bretonnière, Pierre-Antoine ; Guevara, Marc ; Jorba, Oriol ; Mateu Armengol, Jan ; Samso Cabre, Margarida ; Serradell, Kim ; Soret, Albert ; Pérez Garcia-Pando, Carlos
  • Subjects: Analysis ; Forecasts and trends ; Statistics ; Weather
  • Is Part Of: Atmospheric chemistry and physics, 2022-09, Vol.22 (17), p.11603
  • Description: Air quality (AQ) forecasting systems are usually built upon physics-based numerical models that are affected by a number of uncertainty sources. In order to reduce forecast errors, first and foremost the bias, they are often coupled with model output statistics (MOS) modules. MOS methods are statistical techniques used to correct raw forecasts at surface monitoring station locations, where AQ observations are available. In this study, we investigate the extent to which AQ forecasts can be improved using a variety of MOS methods, including moving average, quantile mapping, Kalman filter, analogs and gradient boosting machine methods, and consider as well the persistence method as a reference. We apply our analysis to the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS) regional ensemble median O.sub.3 forecasts over the Iberian Peninsula during 2018-2019. A key aspect of our study is the evaluation, which is performed using a comprehensive set of continuous and categorical metrics at various timescales, along different lead times and using different meteorological input datasets.
  • Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
  • Language: English
  • Identifier: ISSN: 1680-7316
    EISSN: 1680-7324
  • Source: GFMER Free Medical Journals
    Alma/SFX Local Collection
    ProQuest Central
    DOAJ Directory of Open Access Journals
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